Veteran Dai Hui: Mobilize the masses and trap 5G in the vast ocean of people’s war!

Without a wealth of 1000-yuan phones, there will be no widespread support of the people, there will be no success of 5G, and the problem of the stock game between China and the United States will not be solved.

Therefore, we are going to launch a great people’s war and trap 5G in the vast ocean!

The real 5G mobile phone of Redmi K30 is a fire in that winter, raging flames, burning you and me! This year, Huawei Honor, OPPO, vivo’s thousand-yuan phone Display is bound to emerge one after another.

The thousand yuan machine is of great importance to both China and the United States. A butterfly in the Amazon rainforest of South America can cause a tornado in Texas two weeks later with the occasional flap of its wings.

Say one thousand, say ten thousand, cheap is the last word

There have always been doubts, and even the argument that “5G will fail completely”. There is a “magic” in the anecdotes: odd numbers are difficult, such as 1G, 3G, 5G; and even numbers can achieve great success, such as 2G, 4G and the future 6G.

The whole world is holding their wallets and watching China’s 5G development. The so-called 5G commercial use in some countries is to lay out several base stations and place several numbers, which is purely for show. The marginal effect is diminishing, and everyone feels that 4G is almost enough.

The price of 5G mobile phones is high, with more than 3,000 going up, and there are very few users. Everyone jokes that the greatest value of 5G mobile phones is speed measurement. Lao Dai is holding on to the iPhone XR, which has just arrived in early 2019 and has not yet been depreciated, and is ready to stick to it until 2021.

People don’t buy phones, operators don’t want to build large networks, and they can’t even afford electricity bills.

What to do? !

At the Everbright Securities Beijing Autumn Strategy Conference in early October 2019, veteran Dai Hui made a sincere speech and appealed to the industry: For 5G to be successful, the thousand yuan machine must be released as soon as possible, and it must rely on the vast number of Chinese people! If China does not work hard, 5G will be sad.

Earlier in the Jiwei IC Forum on July 19, Cui Guopeng, chairman of ODM company Huaqin, predicted that the retail price of the terminal delivered to customers in the second half of 2020 will be $200, and it will drop to less than $150 in mid-2021, that is, Thousand yuan machine price. This is already the most optimistic forecast in the industry, but it could actually be faster.

Note: Lao Dai visited Huaqin Communication, the king of ODM of Qianyuan Machine

On the afternoon of December 10, Shanghai Jinmao Tower. Veteran Dai Hui rambled like Xianglin’s sister-in-law at the annual strategy meeting of Everbright Securities: All the 5G businesses we are seeing now are not “killer businesses”. We still have to rely on the general public, so 5G thousand-yuan mobile phones must be released as soon as possible. Only when the general public can afford 5G can 5G survive.

Jin Mao Building is the place where Huawei was the first to do 3G base station research and development and 3G chips (which could only be used for base stations at first) and suffered a lot. The mobile Internet business model started from the 3G era. 3G is definitely a great technology, but it has been suffering for too long. The reasons are: 1. After the technology is mature, the chip and mobile phone waited for three years; 2. The thousand yuan machine waited for another three years. How many six years are there in life?

Just at the same moment when Lao Dai was chatting, Xiaomi officially released the new Redmi K30 5G mobile phone, equipped with Qualcomm Snapdragon 765G processor, and the most surprising thing is the price: 1999 yuan! No mistake, no mistake, only 1999 yuan!

The Shenji K30 will go on sale on January 7, 2020. Xiaomi official said: sufficient stock, not PPT futures mobile phone!

The main chip is the most expensive part of 5G mobile phones. The K30 uses the Snapdragon 765G chip (7nm EUV process) that Qualcomm has just released. Qualcomm may have made a lot of blood this time. For the success of 5G, it is also a fight!

Samsung, Huawei HiSilicon, MediaTek, and Spreadtrum have all launched 5G chips. It is estimated that these chip manufacturers are about to fight with each other.

Various mobile phone manufacturers are sharpening their knives, and the crowd is indignant. Huawei Honor, OPPO, vivo, Apple, Samsung! In 2020, a large number of 5G mobile phones are bound to appear, and the price is expected to be as low as 1,500 yuan, with no ceiling. The price of 5G modules related to the Internet of Things is also expected to drop from the current nearly 1,000 yuan to around 500 yuan.

The war has started, and Dai Hui, an old diaosi who has been reduced to eating instant noodles, can easily own one.

It only took more than a year for 5G technology to go from basic maturity to mass shipment of mobile phones, and then to the thousand-yuan series! It took six years for 3G to reach the same roadmap.

The ex-factory price of Transsion’s 4G low-end smartphones for Africa is about 500 yuan. From this point of view, the popularization of 5G thousand-yuan phones in Africa is not a dream either.

As long as there is traffic, the per-bit construction cost and traffic cost of 5G are actually significantly lower than 4G.

Now, 5G is really stable!

The world is staring at China

The previous 1G/2G/3G/4G were the first to be commercialized in Western countries, but 5G can only be trial-and-error first in China. If China does not work hard, 5G will be sad.

Now the whole world is holding its money bag to see the situation of China’s development of 5G. Wait until China has significantly reduced the end-to-end cost of 5G, and then come to the big one, the so-called “late-mover advantage”.

Why does 5G have to rely on China to launch first? There are four factors.

1. China has abundant power for the development of 5G.

After the development of real estate and infrastructure has slowed down, the electricity (factors of production) used by 5G is no longer a problem, because there is a lot of surplus electricity in western China, and electricity from the west can be exported to the east. UCloud is the first public cloud stock in the A-share market. It will build a data center in energy-rich Inner Mongolia and use it in the west and east.

When the number of 5G users and traffic demand increase, the power consumption per BIT of 5G is actually far less than that of 4G.

China can concentrate its ability to do big things. In 2008, China built large-scale high-speed railways and highways, energy prices recovered from extremely low levels, and car sales surged, directly pulling Europe and Japan out of economic weakness. China itself has also achieved tremendous development.

Second, only China has such a high density of people who love to play mobile phones.

After 5G is used on a large scale, there will be cost and power consumption advantages.

China’s population is very dense, and everyone especially likes to play with mobile phones. Europeans and Americans do not use mobile phones as often as in China. They have more outdoor activities and parties. Happy and kind Chinese people like to play mobile phones all day long, like funny videos, and like to share life. This is the largest single market for global mobile communications.

Everyone feels that the speed of 4G is getting slower and slower. The reason is that everyone’s traffic demand is getting bigger and bigger. Now operators are mainly expanding capacity on 5G, and the expansion of 4G is less and less, so everyone’s 4G speed is getting slower and slower.

Therefore, the Chinese people, like the vast ocean, are the biggest force for the success of 5G! In other words, 5G can only succeed if it serves the Chinese people well.

The third is that only China has a strong power in the whole machine design and manufacturing industry

In 2020, Chinese manufacturers will frantically promote thousand-yuan 5G mobile phones.

On the base station side, there are not only traditional manufacturers such as Huawei, ZTE, and Datang, but also some white-box base station manufacturers.

Smartphones are the biggest driving force for chips, and the rapid development of domestic chip companies has further lowered costs.

4. 5G will promote traditional industries, and China is the biggest beneficiary

The combination of cloud computing, artificial intelligence and 5G is very imaginative, and many traditional industries will be upgraded. Unmanned driving is one of the largest industries. China is a big manufacturing country, so it has the greatest benefits and the greatest motivation.

There is a game called “wisdom pig game”. The best choice for the little pig is to wait for the big pig to work hard. Waiting is the best result. In fact, China did this in the early days, but now the strength does not allow it!

5G is a shared interest between China and the United States, and it also boosts U.S. stocks

Before 4G, Chinese people built base stations in Montenegro and Baishui all over the world and produced cheap mobile phones (such as Transsion). The mobile Internet in the United States quickly swept the world and spread to every corner of the world, Facebook, GOOGLE… . Apple is popular all over the world, and Qualcomm collects “taxes” around the world.

Digital assets have become the biggest gain in the United States in the past few years, and it is also a very valuable asset.

Therefore, before 4G, there was a huge incremental market, and there was a strategic cooperation between China and the United States.

However, if it stays in the 4G era, there will be a fierce stock game between China and the United States. Global shipments of 4G smartphones have actually declined.

This is the background of ZTE and Huawei being restricted by the US.

We must create a huge increment, that is, 5G, to resolve the dilemma brought by the stock game.

Therefore, China issued 5G licenses half a year earlier, and is building a lot!

New trillion cakes are added, and American companies are welcome to participate!

Qualcomm can levy the “Qualcomm Tax” globally again (4G patents are about to expire); Apple will benefit from the large-scale replacement wave again, and Silicon Valley’s chip companies will also develop rapidly.

Veteran Dai Hui is the first person to systematically discuss that the US sanctions against Huawei will be significantly eased, and publicly stated this view at the Soochow Securities Shanghai Year-end Strategy Conference on June 20, 2019. At the G20 meeting a week later, it really eased!

Shares of U.S. Electronic information companies, led by Apple and Qualcomm, and the chip supply chain rose all the way. The U.S. stock market also hit new highs. Lao Dai is holding the XR in his hand, his teeth are itching, and he can’t wait to break it so that I can get a new 5G phone!

Caption: The Dow Jones Index is doing well

In intraday trading on January 2, the Dow rose to a maximum of 28,872.80 points, the Nasdaq rose to 9,093.43 points, and the S&P 500 rose to 3,258.14 points, all setting new intraday record highs. Technology stocks led the gains. Dow component Apple (300.35, 6.70, 2.28%) rose more than 2%, breaking the $300 mark for the first time in history. Shares in Apple’s supply chain also rose, with Micron Technology rising about 3 percent.

Think of a word: (5G) The wind is blowing, and a pool of (global stock markets) spring water!

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